ALMATY, Kazakhstan ? Discussing potential successors to the long-serving president of oil-rich Kazakhstan is normally a political parlor game to be played behind closed doors in this authoritarian Central Asian nation.
Unconfirmed media reports last week claiming that President Nursultan Nazarbayev, 71, has undergone a prostate operation has changed all that.
Debates on life after Nazarbayev have broken a long-held taboo and could prepare the public for momentous change, as well as gauge their feelings on possible future leaders. Stability and continuity have long been tenets at the heart of Nazarbayev's strong-arm rule, which dates back to the 1980s, when Kazakhstan still formed part of the Soviet Union.
While opposition politicians complain of a lack of democratic freedoms, most Kazakhs ? not to speak of foreign investors ? are reasonably content with the status quo.
But the president's top adviser and confidant, Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, caused turmoil this week after telling Russian daily Kommersant that Nazarbayev may one day step aside in favor or his billionaire son-in-law Timur Kulibayev.
"In the event of Kazakhstan's head of state suddenly departing, Timur Kulibayev would be able to continue the president's strategic program," Yertysbayev told Kommersant.
Yertysbayev has previously insisted the president would stay in power beyond 2020. In April, Nazarbayev was resoundingly elected to a new five-year term with 95 percent of the vote.
Mixed messages coming from officials have left some questioning Nazarbayev's state of health ? a subject strictly guarded by laws on state secrets.
The president's office says he was on holiday between July 11 and his return last Thursday. Yertysbayev told Kommersant the president had simply undergone a scheduled medical checkup.
Many commentators are now debating whether Kulibayev would make a worthy replacement.
Kulibayev, a 44-year-old banking and energy magnate, is worth $1.3 billion, according to the Forbes rich list. He has largely avoided the limelight, but his appointment in April as the head of the country's $80 billion sovereign wealth fund has thrust him into the center of attention.
In comments made to KazTag news agency Monday evening, he quashed talk of succession and described Yertysbayev's remarks as "complete nonsense."
"I have never positioned myself as a politician," Kulibayev said. "For a long time I have dealt with economic issues, and that is what I like doing."
Political commentator Gulzhan Yergaliyeva noted that disclosures to the press on sensitive issues need authorization from higher-ups, meaning Yertysbayev was not likely expressing a personal opinion.
Yergaliyeva said one goal may have been to test the public's reaction to the idea of Kulibayev eventually taking over.
"Alternatively, this may have been aimed at discrediting Kulibayev in the eyes of the president, because Nazarbayev really hates it when people discuss the succession issue behind his back," she said.
If not Kulibayev, then who else?
One oft-cited candidate is Prime Minister Karim Masimov, an urbane polyglot whose mastery of social networking sites has given him unusual prominence in a country where the president dominates public discourse. He is also much admired by investors for steering the country out of an economic crisis precipitated by the global financial downturn.
And then there is Dariga Nazarbayeva, 48, the oldest of the president's three daughters ? like Kulibayev, also worth $1.3 billion, according to Forbes. Her prospects were severely dented after her ex-husband, Rakhat Aliyev, fled the country and was then accused of plotting to overthrow the government.
Other top contenders include 54-year old Imangali Tasmagambetov, the popular mayor of the capital, Astana, and youthful Economic Development and Trade Minister Kairat Kelimbetov, 42.
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